The weather office stated that while the northeastern region is likely to receive normal rainfall during the monsoon season, several other parts of the country may experience below-normal precipitation. The long-period average (LPA) of seasonal rainfall over India, based on data from 1971 to 2020, stands at 87 centimetres.
The LPA refers to the average rainfall recorded over a specific region and time period, typically calculated over 30 to 50 years, providing a benchmark for assessing monsoon performance.
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology at the India Meteorological Department, stated that rainfall over the monsoon core zone, which comprises most rainfed agricultural regions, is most likely to remain below normal. He further noted that the average rainfall for the country in June is expected to be below normal, at less than 92 per cent of the LPA.
The IMD clarified that if seasonal rainfall falls below 90 per cent of the LPA, it is categorised as “deficient.” The onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala is expected within the next seven days, marking the official commencement of the monsoon season, which typically begins around June 1.
The IMD issued these projections as part of its second monsoon forecast. Earlier, on April 13, the department had estimated rainfall at 92 per cent of the LPA for the season.
The department also warned that El Niño conditions, currently transitioning from neutral over the equatorial Pacific, are likely to remain weak in June and may strengthen to moderate or strong levels by September. El Niño conditions are generally associated with reduced monsoon rainfall in India.
In addition, the IMD projected above-normal maximum temperatures across most parts of the country during June. It also forecast above-normal heatwave days over several regions, including Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, and isolated parts of Maharashtra. However, below-normal heatwave activity is expected in Rajasthan and Jharkhand.
The combined outlook of sub-normal rainfall expectations, rising temperatures, and evolving El Niño conditions highlights a challenging monsoon season ahead for agriculture, water resources, and climate-sensitive regions across India.
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